Assessing the fit of mark-recapture models with individual covariates: the CUSUM residual plot
by
Darryl I. MacKenzie
Proteus Research & Consulting Ltd.

To date, graphical methods for evaluating the fit of mark-recapture models have been underutilized. Deviance residual plots, such as those available in Program MARK, can be used to identify 'unusual' capture histories, but provide little useful information at the individual level. However, a recently developed method can (Darryl I. MacKenzie, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Otago). By calculating the expected probability of capture at each trapping occasion for each individual, a standardized residual can be obtained. Plotting the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the residuals against individuals, where individuals have been ranked in some meaningful manner, may revel distinct patterns indicating a systematic relationship between model residuals and the basis of ranking, e.g., individual covariates. Parametric bootstrapping can be used to determine whether the CUSUM residual plot is sufficiently atypical. Through examples it is shown that the method can also be used in a standard logistic regression analysis.

Date received: September 14, 2001